Wind AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Melbourne
decks
14
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
95
41-44-10
overall winrate
48.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1260
· median 1245
· range 1071–1405
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1204
Q3 1407
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +2.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 8 | 1-6-1 | 18.8% | 29.2% | 30.6% | -9.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.1% | -1.0 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 66.6% | +8.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 58.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.1 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 11 | 6-3-2 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 60.7% | +6.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.2% | -21.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.0% | -23.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.3% | +1.4 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.1% | -25.5 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Dilu, Auspicious Charger, Perse, Relentless Raptor, Viridian Protective Trinket. Losers more often ran: Innervate Agility, Eye of Argus, Song of Nurturing.
Dilu, Auspicious Charger
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Perse, Relentless Raptor
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Concealed Marksman
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Eye of Argus
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Song of Nurturing
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Veiling Breeze
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 134 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 114 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Concealed Marksman | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yunzhou Cavalry | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Veiled Dash | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Beastbond Paws | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cavalier Rescue | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lumbering Steed | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swerving Spring | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Adept Swordmaster | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Paired Minds, Kindred Souls | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sundering Moon | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseeching Flourish | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Guandu, Theater of War | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Invective Instruction | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reconnaissance Scout | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enhance Hearing | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Assembler | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Plea for Peace | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Synthetic Core | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlord Mk III | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloaked Executioner | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercurial Heart | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ceremonial Stormblade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Cutter | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Galahad, Court Knight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Quan, Sealbearer | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seer's Sword | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark of Fervor | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckless Slash | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rally the Peasants | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focusing Round | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Emerald Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Hunter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbulent Bullet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Rangefinder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |